A weakening UK jobs market points to a November Bank of England cut. Concern over China stimulus grows. FOMC members talk of 25 bps cuts by the Fed. New Zealand inflation is set to return to target. Three rates decisions today in Asia.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses signs Australia’s housing market is starting to cool, particularly in Melbourne.
5 things to know:
Global equities weakened overnight on concern about the size of China’s stimulus package. US FOMC members are increasingly discussing a 25 bps cut in November, while a softening UK jobs market points to the Bank of England cutting in November, says ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin.
Annual inflation in New Zealand should today fall back into the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target band for the first time since the start of 2021. ANZ Econoimst Henry Russell and the Reserve Bank forecast a Q3 rate of 2.3%, down from 3.3%.
New Zealand house prices measured by the Real Estate Institute rose 0.3% in September, the first rise since April. Henry still sees signs of sluggishness in the market. Sales volumes fell 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
There are three rate decisions in Asia today. Thailand is expected to hold at 2.5%, and Indonesia at 6%. But ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says Philippines’ central bank is expected to cut 25 bps to 6%.
ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was flat last week. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says concerns about financial conditions were offset by stronger confidence in the economic outlook.
Cheers
Alex
PS: Bernard is away this week on family leave. Catch you tomorrow with a review of those NZ inflation figures, and what they could mean for the Reserve Bank.