US inflation behaves, and supports rates being cut in Q3. Attention turns to the US jobs market. New Zealand consumer confidence improves, but cautiously, and the final pieces of data are due ahead of the RBA’s will-they-or-won’t-they rate cut call next week.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton outlines ANZ Research’s latest forecasts for the Australian economy and the task ahead for the Reserve Bank of Australia.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US stocks finished the week on a positive note after headline US PCE inflation rose in line with expectations at 2.3% annually in May. Core PCE came in slightly above forecast at 2.7%. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the data fits with the view that demand in the US economy is slowing.
Brian says ANZ Research continues to expect a September rate cut by the FOMC. Attention now turns to the health of the US labour market this week.
There are reports President Trump may opt for an early announcement of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s replacement this year. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says it’s hard to know just how significant an early announcement would be, but that it could end up rattling investors.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 6 points in June to 98.8 following a fall in May. It remains below its long-run average. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says, despite the rise, expectations of negative economic times over the next year will weigh on spending.
In Australia this week, May data will come out for private credit, building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance, and household spending. Richard says the RBA will be looking at every little piece as it weighs up whether to hold or cut rates again on July the 8th.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a deep dive into Australia’s First Nations Economy.
