US growth is revised lower in Q1 and its trade deficit widens in May. All eyes are on May PCE inflation for rate cut clues. Australian job vacancies bounce. Singapore looks set to avoid a technical recession off the back of a manufacturing boost.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses how Papua New Guinea and other Pacific economies are faring amid global trade uncertainty.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US Q1 GDP was revised down to a fall of 0.5% on weaker consumption growth. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit widened by $9 billion in May to $96.6 billion as exports fell over 5% and imports remained steady. All eyes are now on US PCE inflation data for May. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the data should show monthly momentum in inflation is continuing to soften.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee joined the ‘patience vs July’ discussion, saying a few months of clarity on inflation would be important to see. Brian says while monthly inflation is softening, an annual rate of 2.6% for core PCE would still look sticky, with that potential for inflation pressure to come on via tariffs.
Australian job vacancies bounced by 2.9% in May from February to just under 340,000. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk says the rise was led by the private sector - particularly professional and technical services.
Vacancies were down 2.8% from a year ago. But that’s after a large rise following COVID - Aaron says vacancies are roughly 85% higher than before the pandemic.
Singapore’s industrial production rose more than expected in May. Excluding the volatile biochemical category, it was up 4.9% from a year ago. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says that indicates the city-state will avoid a technical recession, with growth in Q2.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard).
PS: Bernard is back from Monday, and will have a review of that US inflation data and what it could mean for US interest rates.
