Oil is up as concern grows over the Israel-Iran conflict. Stocks are down - also due to weak US economic data. The Bank of Japan holds amid tariff uncertainty. Australian consumers are expecting higher inflation as global tensions rise.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt explains why New Zealand’s housing market is struggling to gain momentum even as interest rates drop.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil prices jumped and stocks fell again on renewed concern about the Israel-Iran conflict. Also pushing stocks down were weak US retail sales and industrial production in May. Housing market sentiment was also weak. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the US economy is slowing down.
Eyes are now on the US Fed’s interest rate call and commentary tomorrow. Brian says no change is expected. But he’s looking for FOMC member views of where rates are headed.
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, and reduced purchases of Government bonds, as expected. ANZ International Economist Tom Kenny says the BoJ wants to keep normalising policy, but is looking for how global tariffs affect inflation.
Initial news of the Israel-Iran conflict may have fed into the final days of ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence collection last week, says ANZ Economist Sophia Angala. Headline confidence was down 1.3 points to 85.4 - below the 2025 average, as inflation expectations rose.
Monthly price data covering nearly 50% of New Zealand’s CPI fell 0.6% in May, close to ANZ Research’s expectations. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says sharp declines in airfares led the drop. Rents and petrol prices were also weaker than expected, with food prices a bit stronger.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard).
PS: Catch you tomorrow with the FOMC’s rate decision.
