US and China trade talks continue this morning. US inflation data for May will show if tariffs are pushing up prices. Australian business conditions are their lowest since 2020. Traffic movements in New Zealand show diverging economic activity.
In the second part of a deep dive interview into OPEC’s production cut phase-out, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he will be keeping a close eye on what the oil bloc decides on production in September.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Trade talks between the US and China continue in London. Meanwhile, US small business optimism rose in slightly in May, according to the NFIB survey. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the survey’s uncertainty index also rose though.
Eyes are now on US May CPI inflation data. ANZ International Economist Tom Kenny is expecting the important core measure to rise 0.3% in the month - up slightly on April’s 0.24%. That would give an annual rate of 2.9%. Headline CPI is expected at 0.2% in May and 2.5% annually.
Tom says US Federal Reserve officials will want time to see how tariffs impact inflation data over coming months.
Australian business conditions eased in May to their lowest point since 2020, according to NAB’s survey. Business confidence rose slightly, but remained below its long run average. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell says some leading indicators did improve from April.
ANZ’s New Zealand Truckometer index for May showed light traffic activity - an indicator of current demand - up 0.3% from a year ago. Heavy traffic - a steer on production GDP - was up 1.7%. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the results fit with wider indicators of what’s driving activity.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard).
PS: Catch you tomorrow with analysis of that US May CPI data and what it could mean for US interest rates.
