Oil is down another 5% and US stocks are up over 1% on hopes a Middle East ceasefire will hold. US consumer confidence drops. US Fed chair Powell reiterates patience on rates. Australia’s consumers get a boost from year-end sales.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why his latest ANZ Research Quarterly note on the world economy has the tagline ‘shaken, but not a shambles’.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Oil fell over 5% and US stocks rose as markets rallied on news of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict. In the US, Fed chair Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress reiterated patience on rate cuts, while US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani.
The US dollar moved lower as the oil price and risk sentiment eased. ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman expects to dollar to maintain its downward trend.
ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.3 points last week to 86.7. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the rise was led by the ‘time to buy a major item’ subindex amid sales events. Confidence in the economic outlook weakened.
Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is expected to have ticked down to 2.3% annually in May, due in part to lower petrol prices over the month. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the overall picture, though, is one where disinflation has stalled.
Malaysia’s May CPI came in at 1.2% annually, versus the 1.4% expected. Meanwhile, recent data showed exports down 1.1% in the month from a year ago, compared to expectations for a 7.5% increase. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says that led to the lowest trade surplus, outside COVID, since 1997.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard).
PS: Catch you tomorrow with analysis of Australia’s May CPI indicator and what it could mean for the RBA.
