Stocks are jittery and safe havens in demand this morning after an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine overnight. The RBA’s minutes indicate it may cut earlier than previously expected and Australian consumer confidence is still trending higher.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the outlook for Chinese steel production and iron ore prices ahead of looming US tariffs under a Donald Trump Presidency.
5 things to know:
Traders are looking for safe havens after Ukraine blew up a weapons dump inside Russia with a US-made missile, and Russia changed its nuclear response doctrine. Meanwhile, European inflation figures confirm the battle against inflation is won, says ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin.
The minutes for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting could be interpreted as the Board opening the door to rate cuts in coming months, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says.
Adam says that doesn’t mean the minutes should be classed as dovish, as rate cuts might just be a little closer than expectations. Market bets ahead of the minutes didn’t have 25 basis points worth of cuts priced in until May 2025.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence maintained the new levels it has risen to in recent weeks, up 0.1 points last week to 86.8. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the trend remains upward.
Inflation expectations in the survey have been hovering just below 5% in recent months. Sophia says there was a slight tick down in the measure last week.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with analysis of China lending rate decisions expected today.
