Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data. The RBA holds, but is more comfortable on inflation, which saw the Aussie and Kiwi dollars drop 1%. And China’s exports haven’t experienced a pre-Trump bump…yet.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the new Reserve Bank of India Governor, could approach monetary policy, including with a new deputy in place.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Markets were mixed overnight, although the Aussie and Kiwi dollars were down 1% after the RBA’s shift in tone and weak China trade data,The RBA held rates at 4.35%. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says the Board softened its view on inflation, but remains concerned about the jobs market.
Adam says while the RBA’s stance on inflation raises the prospect of a February cut, he is still picking May. The strength of Australia’s jobs market remains a concern.
Both Australian consumer confidence last week, and business confidence in November fell, adding to slightly softer sentiment yesterday. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dipped 2.9 points as confidence about current financial conditions dropped.
Eyes have been on oil prices in recent days, following developments in Syria and potential flow-on to Middle East conflict. ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari says traders are holding off large reactions to the events, for now.
China’s exports grew 7.6% year on year in November, below the consensus forecast closer to 9%. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says the below-expectation print may be due to the market over-estimating when front-loading of exports ahead of Donald Trump’s new tariffs would take place.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with the latest US inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed.
