China is targeting 5% GDP growth again, but debate is intense on how it’ll get there. Gold and bitcoin hit record highs. Australian exports are helping GDP growth. South Korea’s factories are humming. Prices in the Philippines rose more than forecast.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan explains how Asian central banks are positioning themselves for the Fed’s first rate cut.
5 things to know:
China set a 5% GDP growth target for 2024, which was above market consensus, but disappointed some traders who wanted larger fiscal stimulus. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing expects a further cut to China’s policy rate.
Markets expect Australian GDP growth of 0.2% in the December quarter and 1.4% from a year ago. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton sees the RBA comfortable with quarterly growth in the 0.1 to 0.5% range.
South Korea’s GDP grew 0.6% in the December quarter and 2.2% from a year ago. This was the same as an advance estimate, but ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the mix changed.
Annual inflation in the Philippines was stronger than expected in February at 3.4%. The consensus was for 3%. Krystal says the country’s central bank can be patient before cutting rates in Q4, assuming the Fed moves earlier.
Deflation in Thailand wasn’t as low as expected. The CPI was down 0.77% in February vs a year ago. The consensus was for minus 0.8%. Krystal says inflation may not reach the bottom of the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% target range until late 2024.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with reaction to Australian GDP.
