US stocks and the dollar firmed in the first day of trading after the assassination attempt on US Presidential candidate Donald Trump. China’s GDP growth was below expectations, and there’s further downbeat data from New Zealand’s economy.
In part 2 of our bonus deep dive interview on China’s Third Plenum, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explores what the key meeting could mean for China’s private sector.
5 things to know:
US stocks rose and the dollar firmed as traders increased bets that Donald Trump would win November’s election. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the market reaction to the assassination attempt has not materially affected pricing for when the Federal Reserve will first cut rates.
China’s GDP growth of 4.7% in the June quarter from a year ago was well below market expectations for around 5%. ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, says he still expects 4.9% for the full year, but the second half will need to be better.
China’s weak consumer spending was a major driver for the soft GDP result. Retail sales in the month of June rose just 2% from a year ago in nominal terms. That was below expectations for around 3.4% growth and was down from 3.7% in May. Raymond reports hearing of employers cutting salaries in China.
NZ house prices fell 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms in June from May and sales volumes fell 33%, REINZ data showed. The Business NZ-BNZ PSI survey also hit record lows, says ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman.
The slowdown in New Zealand’s housing market was also noticeable in ANZ’s card spending data for June, says ANZ Chief Economist for New Zealand, Sharon Zollner.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a preview of New Zealand’s June quarter inflation data.
