President Trump indicates a 10% tariff could be placed on China from 1 February; New Zealand’s domestic inflation slows more than expected; and Malaysia holds rates amid strong growth.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell reviews the state of New Zealand’s housing market, and what to expect over 2025.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
President Trump overnight suggested a tariff of 10% could be placed on Chinese goods from 1 February. He also singled out the US trade deficit with the European Union. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says anxieties remain on what the near term path for tariffs might be, however.
New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 came in as expected by ANZ Research at 2.2% annually - the same as in Q3. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says under the hood though, there were positive signs as non-tradable inflation recorded 4.5%, versus the 4.7% expected.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had been forecasting a headline number of 2.1%. But Miles says lower domestic, non-tradable inflation, as well as declining core inflation measures, should give it some comfort ahead of its February rate decision.
Malaysia’s central bank kept rates on hold yesterday at 3%, as expected. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says it looks like Bank Negara Malaysia will be able to keep rates the same through 2025.
Singapore’s headline inflation rate is forecast to have fallen from 1.6% to 1.5% in December. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says the important core measure is expected to fall from 1.9% to 1.6%, paving the way for policy easing by the Monetary Authority of Singapore this month.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow as we look ahead to the Bank of Japan’s live rate decision.
