US markets are mixed after Donald Trump’s partial de-escalation of tariffs on China. Investors are looking ahead to US retail sales data tonight. Australian wage growth beats forecasts before jobs data today, while housing lending fell before the election. And New Zealand’s migrant departures hit a new record high.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at the ability for ASEAN economies and India to use fiscal policy to respond to the economic effects of US tariffs.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US markets were mixed this morning before key US retail sales data due tonight, says ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin.
Australian April jobs data is out later today. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk is forecasting employment to grow by about 30,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. That would be the 14th consecutive month of printing within a range of 3.9% to 4.2%.
There were some signs of Australian labour market strength in yesterday’s wage data for the first three months of the year. The Q1 wage price index rose 0.9% in the quarter, slightly above forecast, and stronger than the 0.7% in December. Aaron says the Reserve Bank of Australian should still be on track to cut rates next week.
Australian housing lending fell 1.6% in the first quarter as the number of approved loans dropped 3.5%, which was below forecasts. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says the housing market may have been affected by rising global economic uncertainty.
New Zealand’s net migration continued to fall in the year to March to 26,400, the lowest since December 2022. Departures of just over 123,000 were a new provisional annual record. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says there are tentative signs the downward cycle has turned a corner.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with how Australia’s April jobs figures are likely to be viewed by the RBA as it weighs up a rate cut next week.
