The Fed has just held US official interest rates, but has forecast slower growth and two more rate cuts. Traders pushed the US dollar and market interest rates down. Gold jumped to a new high. The Bank of Japan also holds, but is expected to keep hiking. Australian jobs are forecast to grow again. NZ GDP is forecast to bounce.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at Fiji’s growth outlook and considers what is needed to drive growth.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) has just held US interest rates, but its dot-plot lowers its GDP outlook and it sees two more rate cuts in 2025. The US dollar and US short term interest rates fell immediately. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars bounced. Gold jumped to a new record high of US$3,047/oz.
The Bank of Japan also held rates as expected. ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny sees the BoJ still going ahead with more hikes.
ANZ Research expects Australia’s unemployment rate to have ticked down to 4% in February, with employment growth of 35,000. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says that would be the 12th month in a row of unemployment sitting within a tight 3.9% to 4.2% range.
New Zealand’s economic recovery is expected to have got underway in December quarter after a mid-year recession. ANZ Economist Henry Russell expects GDP data today to show 0.4% growth, close to the RBNZ’s 0.3% pick.
Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 5.75% yesterday. Indonesia’s stock market fell 7% earlier in the week due to worries about the government’s fiscal position. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says a rate cut would only have added to the disruption.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what Australia’s jobs data and NZ’s growth report could mean for interest rates.
