The US reports substantial progress in weekend trade talks with China. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. China re-routed a lot of exports to Asia and Europe in April. ANZ Research raises its milk price forecasts in New Zealand to a record high $10/kg.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani explains a divergence that has developed between the economies of South Korea and Taiwan, despite facing the same tariff shocks to their exports to the United States
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Global markets will begin the week in a hopeful mood after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported “substantial progress” in trade talks with China. Meanwhile, trade data from China was better overall than expected in April because exports were re-routed, says ANZ China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou.
That didn’t mean China’s trade with the United States was unaffected in the first month of 145% tariffs, Vicky says.
China’s consumer and producer prices fell in April from a year ago, reports ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing.
Japan’s wage inflation was softer than expected in April, at least at the headline level. ANZ FX Strategist Felix Ryan says the underlying data remains solid enough for the Bank of Japan to keep looking to normalise policy with rate hikes, although not any time soon.
ANZ Research has upgraded its forecast for New Zealand’s milk payouts this year and next year to $10/kg, says ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you with a preview of tomorrow night’s US inflation data for April.
