Markets are focused on safe havens after the assassination attempt on former President Trump. China’s exports are set to soften as US demand wanes. India’s CPI was above expectations, and NZ’s manufacturing sector falls deeper into recession.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why this week’s third plenum meeting of China’s key leaders is so important.
5 things to know:
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump dominates the market focus this morning. ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says there’s often a flight to safe havens after such geopolitical surprises.
Last week’s reassuring US inflation figures have re-set the tone for interest rate expectations globally, especially now markets are sure the Fed will start cutting in September, says ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga.
China’s exports in June rose 8.6% from a year ago, but imports fell 2.3% on weakness in consumer spending. China’s trade surplus hit a record-high US$99.05b in June. Raymond says that surplus may not last for long.
India’s CPI rose 5.1% in June vs a year ago, which was above the 4.8% market consensus. However, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim says it was in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s forecasts, and vindicated its hawkishness.
The BusinessNZ-BNZ PMI survey of manufacturers for June found a slump to 41.1 points, the worst result outside of lockdowns since February 2009, says ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with part two of Raymond’s deep-dive interview on the third plenum.
