Markets start the week on the lookout for certainty as US courts see-saw on tariff legality; Australia’s housing market sends mixed signals, while retail spending was sluggish in April; and India produces surprisingly strong first quarter GDP.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks ahead to a suite of trade data in Asia amid tariff uncertainty, and also Australia’s Q1 growth figures, due on Wednesday.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Markets start the week looking for greater certainty on the US tariff situation, after an appeals court halted an earlier ruling that the majority of the administration’s tariffs were imposed illegally. President Trump also announced steel and aluminium tariffs would rise from 25% to 50%. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says there is still no certainty for the US Fed that it can cut rates despite good PCE inflation news on Friday.
India’s March quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside at 7.4% from a year ago, versus the 6.8% market expectation. ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim says lower imports, strong agriculture and services activity, and government capital investment led the surge.
Australian building approvals fell 5.7% in April, following a 7.1% drop in March. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says an expected gradual improvement in approvals this year hasn’t yet come about, largely due to capacity constraints.
There are some positive signs for the housing market though. Corelogic data this morning showed house prices up 0.5% in May - the fourth increase in a row. Housing sector credit also rose half a percent in April - faster than in March.
Australian retail sales fell 0.1% in April, versus expectations for a 0.3% lift. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk says despite a bounce back in Queensland spending after the cyclone, April spending continued on from a rather subdued first quarter.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard, who is on holiday through June).
PS: Catch you tomorrow with an update on activity in Australia’s jobs market.
