5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
Monday: Fed rate cut size unresolved
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Monday: Fed rate cut size unresolved

Mixed US jobs data means size of Fed rate cut undecided; Stocks down on jobs fears & Nvidia fall; Australian home loans to investors strong; Vietnam in an economic sweet spot; Daniel Hynes on iron ore

Mixed US jobs data means the debate about a 25 basis point cut or a 50 point cut by the Fed next week still very alive. Australian home lending to investors is strong. Vietnam’s economy is in a sweet spot, with falling inflation and strong exports.

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the implications for Australian iron ore producers from weakening Chinese steel demand.

5 things to know:

  1. The Fed is still seen on track to start easing next week, either by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. US jobs grew 142k in August, a touch below the 165k consensus, but unemployment fell and wages growth nudged higher. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga still thinks the Fed will cut 25 basis points.

  2. The focus in Asian trade today will be on China CPI and PPI data, and then on Friday there’s China’s factory output, retail sales and investment data dump, says Richard.

  3. Australian mortgage lending to investors in July was up 35% from a year ago and it’s nearly back up to its January 2022 peak, reports ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk.

  4. Maddy says the rise in investor lending wasn’t purely because house prices have risen.

  5. Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.45% in August from 4.36% in July after a fall in food prices. ANZ Economist Kausani Basak says there’s little reason for monetary policy to react, given the economy is growing solidly.

Cheers

Bernard

PS: Catch you tomorrow as we look ahead to key US inflation data on Wednesday night and a likely rate cut by the European Central Bank on Thursday night.

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5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
A daily podcast hosted by Bernard Hickey that gives you the five things you need to know about the global economy and markets in under five minutes. Plus a deep dive into emerging trends and issues featuring ANZ's global team of experts.