Global stocks begin the week at record highs after soft US jobs data boosted hopes the Fed will cut in September. European markets are on tenterhooks for French election results. And inflation in Thailand and the Philippines is weaker than expected.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how exports are driving growth in Asia as consumption moderates.
5 things to know:
Markets will focus this morning on French Parliamentary election results, where initial exit polls show Marine Le Pen’s far-right nationalist party will lose to a coalition set up to block her. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says politics is in flux everywhere in the world in the second half of 2024;
US jobs figures on Friday night were softer than expected overall, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani. That increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September to 79% from 66%.
Britain’s bond market reacted cautiously on Friday to Labour’s landslide election win, while the pound was firmer, thanks partly to lower US yields, says ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman.
Thailand’s annual inflation rate in June was just 0.62%, which was less than market expectations. ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan says the Bank of Thailand will be wary of a bounce-back in inflation before cutting rates.
Inflation in the Philippines was just 3.7% in June from a year ago, which was also softer than expected. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says the central bank will also be wary of a rebound from food and fuel inflation.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate decision on Wednesday.
