The ECB held its policy rate overnight and remains on track to cut in June - before the Fed. China inflation data was weaker than expected. A Taylor Swift effect is expected to boost Singapore’s GDP data. Traders are on yen intervention watch.
In our bonus deep dive interview on the oil outlook, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says any jump towards US$100/bbl because of supply disruptions in the Middle East is likely to spark an OPEC supply response.
5 things to know:
The ECB held its deposit rate at 4% and is on track to cut before the Fed in June. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains markets aren’t 100% certain.
China’s CPI rose 0.1% in March from a year ago, which was weaker than the consensus for a 0.4% rise. It fell 1.0% from February, which ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung says was disappointing.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore meets today, while GDP data for the March quarter is also out. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh sees a Taylor Swift effect supporting quarterly growth of 0.6% and 3.2% annually.
India’s March CPI data is out later today. Market consensus is for a 4.9% annual rate, down from 5.09% in February. ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sees 4.7%.
ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says yen intervention risks are high today after more jawboning and a slide through 153 to the US dollar, but 155 is a more likely threshold for action.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week with reaction to India’s CPI and a preview of the week ahead.
