The Bank of Japan is set to hike rates today, while Singapore looks set to ease. Political turmoil suppresses Korean growth, and inflows of migrants into New Zealand fall again.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan analyses Bank Indonesia’s shift away from being concerned about a weak currency, leading to last week’s surprise rate cut.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Today all eyes are on the Bank of Japan. ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan and the market are expecting a 25 basis points rate hike to 0.5%.
Ahead of the BoJ decision, the Yen has been trading in a fairly tight range - sitting this morning at 156 to the US dollar. Felix says any reaction in the currency will likely be due to future rates guidance.
South Korea recorded weaker-than-expected GDP growth of 0.1% in the December quarter. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says while exports expanded due to strength in semiconductor demand, domestic consumption was a drag.
Singapore’s headline annual inflation rate was steady at 1.6% in December. Attention now turns to today’s Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy review. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says the MAS looks set to join the global easing party by slightly lowering the slope of its policy band for the Singapore dollar.
New Zealand’s net migration rate continued to fall in the year to November, with a new inflow of 30,600 well down from a peak of 135,700 in the year to October 2023. ANZ Economist Henry Russell says the fall is due to a weak labour market and a contracting economy.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow as we look ahead to the US Fed’s first rate decision under the new Trump administration. We’re back on Tuesday after Australia’s public holiday on Monday.
