The Bank of England holds. New Trump sanctions on Iran pump up oil prices by 1.7%. Australia’s big jobs fall in February is not expected to force more RBA cuts, while New Zealand’s stronger Q4 growth shouldn’t stop RBNZ from cutting more.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell digs into what led to New Zealand’s faster-than-expected growth at the end of 2024.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The Bank of England has held rates as expected overnight, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani. Futures prices for West Texas Intermediate oil rose 1.7% to US$68.05/bbl after Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran.
Australia’s employment fell by 52,800 in February. Market expectations were for a 30,000 rise. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says the jobs divergence was due to large numbers of older people not returning to the labour market in February.
Adam says there shouldn’t be implications from this data for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate track.
New Zealand’s economy expanded 0.7% in the fourth quarter, faster than ANZ Research’s forecast for 0.4%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 0.3%. ANZ Economist Henry Russell says the data shouldn’t throw the RBNZ off its track of returning the OCR to a neutral 3% with three more rate cuts.
Banks in China held their key lending rates - or loan prime rates - steady yesterday, in line with expectations. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says China’s economic backdrop looks firm enough to not be cutting rates.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week with a preview from Adam on Australia’s Federal Budget due on Tuesday night.
