Global stocks wobble as Ukraine conflict fears escalate. UK inflation is hotter than expected. China’s banks hold lending rates amid a focus on fiscal stimulus, and Bank Indonesia says post-Trump currency moves have affected its ability to cut rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s win for Asian local currency bond yields.
5 things to know:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 0.7% and the US dollar is up 0.6% as market volatility increases along with fears the Ukraine-Russia conflict is escalating. UK inflation data was hotter than expected, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani.
China’s banks held key 1- and 5-year lending rates steady this month, as expected. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says banks are reluctant to cut rates as a large local government debt-swap programme threatens their profit outlooks.
Zhaopeng says ANZ Research still expects the Loan Prime Rates to be cut another 30 basis points through next year.
Bank Indonesia held rates at 6% yesterday and warned that the previous scope for rate cuts has narrowed after the post-Trump rally in the US dollar has weakened the rupiah, says ANZ Economist Krystal Tan.
Japan’s exports resumed their growth in October by more than expected, rising 3.1% from a year ago. They fell in September. ANZ FX analyst Felix Ryan says that’s positive for Q4 GDP growth after net exports were a drag in Q3.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what US jobs market data tonight tells us about whether the Fed might cut or hold rates next month.
