The FOMC holds US rates and indicates two more cuts this year. Bank Indonesia holds to protect its currency. Australia’s jobs market is set to show ongoing strength. Japan exports fall amid tariff uncertainty. New Zealand’s economy is set for Q1 growth.
In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the Reserve Bank of India’s recent monetary policy ‘clarification’ after an oversized rate cut earlier this month.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The Federal Open Markets Committee has just announced the Fed Funds Rate remains on hold in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. New projections maintained 50 basis points of further cuts expected this year. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the Fed reduced its growth forecasts and increased inflation forecasts.
Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 5.5% amid an easing cycle, citing a need to support its currency against a volatile global backdrop. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the central bank maintained an easing bias.
Australia’s May jobs report is expected by ANZ Research to show a 25,000 employment lift and the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says jobs are holding up during a modest mid-cycle economic slowdown.
New Zealand’s economy likely continued to grow relatively strongly out of 2024’s mid-year recession, with 0.7% growth in Q1, says ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt. That would be the same as in the December quarter and above the Reserve Bank’s forecast.
Japan export values fell 1.7% in May from a year ago - the first drop in eight months. While that was smaller than expected, the fall and a widening trade deficit are concerning for Q2 growth, as US tariff uncertainty affects trade, says ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan.
Cheers,
Alex (standing in for Bernard).
PS: Catch you tomorrow with the Bank of England’s latest rate decision - expected by ANZ Research to be a hold.
