ANZ Research has lowered its US growth forecast, while also nudging its China GDP forecast higher. Donald Trump’s big tariff day on April 2 will be a key moment for global markets, and Japan’s inflation is rising nicely for more Bank of Japan rate hikes.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton previews tomorrow night’s Federal Budget.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
ANZ Research has tweaked its economic growth forecasts for the United States and China to reflect the turmoil around Donald Trump and a better-than-expected start to 2025 in China, says ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga.
Richard says the key factor to watch is the upcoming April 2 deadline for Trump’s tariffs.
ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman is also watching the April 2 deadline closely, especially for the US dollar, which has fallen with expectations for US growth and interest rates, although not evenly.
The Kiwi and Aussie dollars have benefited from the US dollar’s fall in the last week, but are vulnerable to shifts in overall sentiment, says Mahjabeen.
Japanese inflation data on Friday was slightly stronger than expected, says ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with Daniel Hynes taking a closer look at Lithium and Cobalt, where big new supplies have dumped prices lower.
