Stronger US retail sales do little to dent September rate cut hopes. Gold hits a fresh high overnight. New Zealand inflation is being watched for signs of weakness. Australian consumer confidence falls again. Bank Indonesia looks set to hold rates.
In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks ahead to a possible fourth set of Renminbi reforms.
5 things to know:
US stocks strengthened overnight as expectations for a September rate cut survived stronger-than-expected retail sales. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says consumer demand looks to have normalised.
New Zealand’s Q2 CPI will be analysed for softness after a series of weak data raised expectations for rate cuts this year. ANZ Economist Henry Russell is picking headline quarterly CPI inflation of 0.4% and 3.3% annually.
Strong services inflation in the UK tonight is expected to keep the Bank of England on its toes, risking a later start than August for rate cuts.
ANZ-Roy Morgan’s survey of Australian consumer confidence found it fell again last week to the second weakest result in 2024. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says a bounce expected in July from cost-of-living help and tax cuts isn’t materialising.
Bank Indonesia is expected to hold its policy rate at 6.25% today. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says any pressure for a rate hike has diminished as downward pressure on the Rupiah has eased in recent weeks.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with those New Zealand inflation numbers and a preview of Australia’s June jobs data.
