US stocks rise as producer prices drop ahead of CPI data tonight. China’s core inflation rises, meaning the PBOC’s easing cycle could be near an end. And New Zealand’s traffic data shows the economy may pick up from Q3.
In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how China has been building up stockpiles of oil reserves, and why it’s about to end.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US stocks rose overnight as producer price inflation - or factory prices - fell 0.1% in August, the first fall in four months. The surprise comes ahead of CPI data tonight, which will be the last before the Federal Reserve’s rates call next week.
China’s consumer price index fell 0.4% in August from a year ago after several increases. However, core CPI rose 0.9%. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says an improving inflation outlook from here should mean the PBOC is close to the end of its easing cycle.
New Zealand’s heavy traffic activity fell 1.3% in August and has lost some momentum recently, according to ANZ’s Truckometer series. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says light traffic activity showed some positive signs though.
It may be a turning point for New Zealand’s falling migration arrivals and rising departures in recent years. Both appear to have shifted direction, with a net migration gain of 13,000 in the year to July up from just under 12,000 in the year to June, says ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt.
Exports from Taiwan rose more than 34% in the year to August - exceeding expectations. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says the driver continues to be semiconductors for AI applications.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what that US CPI data could signal for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path.
