Mexico and Canada get a one month reprieve from Donald Trump’s 25% across-the-board tariffs and China is in talks for a similar reprieve. China’s response yesterday was also limited, which markets welcomed overnight.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Economist Henry Russell says ANZ’s Business Outlook survey indicates New Zealand’s economy turned a corner at the end of 2024.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
China announced limited tariffs on various US products in response to Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on China’s imports after a reprieve for both Canada and Mexico. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says China’s measured response helped markets recover somewhat overnight.
ANZ Research and the Reserve Bank expect data due out today to show New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.1% in the the fourth quarter, with employment declining by 0.2-to-0.3%. ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there would have to be a large surprise to throw the RBNZ off course from a 50 basis point cut this month.
New Zealand building consents dipped by a seasonally adjusted 5.6% in December from November, due to volatility in multi-unit projects. Annual consents were down 9.8% from 2023. Henry says the downturn does look to be stabilising though.
ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.5 points last week to 88.5. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says that’s a 32-month high.
Sophia says inflation expectations dropped from 5.2% a couple of weeks ago to 4.6% in the latest survey. That followed Q4 trimmed mean inflation last week coming in below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecast.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what New Zealand’s jobs data means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cutting cycle.
