Markets are mixed amid conflicting signals on Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Bank of England cuts dovishly, driving the pound lower. Australia’s trade surplus normalises in December, and Vietnam’s inflation was surprisingly strong.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the risks to Fiji’s trade from a tariff-imposing White House.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The Bank of England cut its official rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% overnight, as expected, but took a surprisingly dovish tilt, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani. The pound fell 0.6%.
Australia’s goods trade balance narrowed by $1.7 billion to a surplus of $5.1 billion in December from November. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the fall brings the surplus back into a range seen in the six months before a jump in November.
The Trump Presidency has placed a greater focus on global trade flows and the risks from tit-for-tat trade wars. Sophia says Australian exports are less likely to be a direct target for US tariffs, although global ructions could still have an effect.
Thailand recorded annual inflation of 1.3% in January, which was within the central bank’s 1-3% target band and up from 1.2% in December. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan still sees room for the Bank of Thailand to cut..
Inflation in Vietnam overshot estimates in January. The annual rate of 3.6% compared to a consensus forecast for 3.1%. ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak believes the surprise is due to a surge in spending in the lead up to the Lunar New Year holiday, meaning the momentum won’t be sustained.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week with the final data clues ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decisions on the 18th and 19th of February, respectively.
