US PCE data was in line with forecasts. The Fed is seen waiting until September before cutting, rather than this week. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike on Wednesday. The Bank of England is seen holding. NZ consumer confidence bounces.
In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes digs into the demand and supply issues hammering iron ore prices lower.
5 things to know:
US PCE inflation data met expectations on Friday night, reassuring the Fed that inflation is being controlled, says ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman.
ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees a small chance the FOMC will cut the Fed funds rate this Thursday. He expects the Fed to wait until September to be absolutely sure.
The BoJ is expected to hike by 15 basis points to 0.25% this week after recent inflation figures showed some strength, says Mahjabeen.
Richard says it would be premature for the Bank of England to cut this week.
ANZ’s Roy Morgan survey showed NZ consumer confidence bounced in July from a very low base. Richard says the RBNZ is getting closer to a cut, most likely in November.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a closer look with Richard Yetsenga at what a President Donald Trump 2.0 might mean for global inflation and interest rates.
