Oil rises on an escalating conflict in Ukraine. US jobs and business confidence data is mixed. Australian housing affordability worsens again and New Zealand’s Treasury warns growth will be weaker than its May forecast and widen the budget deficit.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why ANZ Research thinks gold will continue to attract demand despite recent price drops.
5 things to know:
Oil prices rose almost 1% after reports Russia fired a non-nuclear ICBM. US jobless claims were solid but the Philly Fed’s manufacturing survey was the third worst this year. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin sees the Fed in cautious easing mode.
Australian housing affordability worsened again during Q3, the ANZ Corelogic Housing Affordability Report found. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says it’s the same trend for both home owners and renters.
As the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with when to cut rates, a key question is where measures of full employment sit. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says it could be as low as 3.75%.
Adam says estimates for full employment in Australia have been drifting lower over the past 20 years.
New Zealand’s Treasury has warned growth is proving weaker than its May Budget forecast, which is widening the deficit. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman still sees Treasury forecasting a decent recovery in later years.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you next week as we look to what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might do with rates.
