ANZ Research now sees a later start to rate cuts in Australia, but sees a bigger rate cut in February in New Zealand. Donald Trump issues a big new tariff threat. And India’s GDP missed forecasts, increasing the chances the RBI will cut later this week.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why she sees just 75 bps more of rate cuts, rather than the 125 bps the RBNZ sees.
5 things to know:
Global markets were mixed and quiet so ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga details ANZ Research’s changes in cash rate call changes for Australia and New Zealand on Friday.
ANZ Research now sees the RBA’s first cut in May next year, rather than February, and only two cuts in the cycle, rather than three, says ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton.
Australian private second credit rose 0.6% in October, which was the strongest result since June. ANZ Australia economist Maddy Dunk points to a 1% rise in business lending.
ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sees India’s lower-than-expected India GDP data making an RBI rate cut on Friday more likely.
Richard is wary about jumping to conclusions when faced with Trump’s worsening tariff threats.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead to Wednesday’s GDP data in Australia and key US jobs data on Friday night.
