US inflation is below forecasts. Donald Trump ‘un-doubles’ Canada tariffs, but sets global steel and aluminium ones. Japanese bond yields hit their highest since 2008, thanks to safe-haven demand. And New Zealand’s trucks got moving in February.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how India’s growth rate over the next year may come in below potential, opening room for rate cuts as annual inflation falls, as it did in February to a weaker-than-expected 3.6%.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US stocks have bounced somewhat overnight, reassured by lower-than-expected US inflation of 0.2% in February and some good news on tariffs, although it is a real roller-coaster. Donald Trump yesterday ‘un-doubled’ his Canadian metals tariffs from 50% back to 25% after Ontario dropped electricity surcharge threats, but ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the EU and others could retaliate at the global steel and aluminium tariffs.
ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga believes the market downturn being seen in the US could be a precursor to the Trump administration pivoting away from policies causing uncertainty.
Japanese Government bond yields have risen to their highest since 2008, and the Yen has moved higher. ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan says the Bank of Japan Governor’s yesterday implied rising yields were a sign of sustainable inflation.
New Zealand heavy traffic movements - which provide a real-time signal for GDP - maintained January’s strength last month, says ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner.
Sharon says while New Zealand’s economy has turned from last year’s recession, the next year still isn’t going to look all that great.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with more from Richard on which way the US administration may pivot as current economic policy comes under pressure.
