US retail sales stall, suggesting a Fed rate cut is needed. Australian consumers take a hit after the RBA hikes rates, as businesses report easing price pressures. And New Zealand’s economic momentum builds.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses why the US jobs market remains weak even as the economy grows.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US retail sales growth stalled in December, with nominal sales flat from November and indicating a further rate cut is needed. Meanwhile, the US employment cost index rose 0.7% in the quarter, which ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says is consistent with inflation returning to target.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hike the cash rate last week shook up consumers, with the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index falling 3.6 points to 76.9. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says all subindices fell.
The four week moving average of 80.2 in the ANZ Roy Morgan survey was well down on last year’s peak of 89 in August 2025.
A key reason the RBA hiked rates was inflation overshooting its target. There was some good news on that front in the NAB Business Survey for January, says ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell.
Further signs that New Zealand’s economy was on the turn over the new year, with light and heavy traffic activity trending up despite small monthly drops across December and January. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the economy should continue to build momentum.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with US January job market figures and what they might mean for the Fed.
