US markets remain calm on Day One of the new administration as tariffs remain unannounced - for now. New Zealand’s non-tradable inflation today will be a gauge for the RBNZ’s next rate cut, and Malaysia’s central bank is expected to hold today.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at prospects across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand in 2025.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US markets remained calm on President Trump’s first day in office, as the new administration continued to hold back from announcing immediate tariffs on trading partners. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says tariffs look set to be used as negotiation tactics.
There was a slight dip in ANZ Roy Morgan Australia Consumer Confidence last week, down 1.3 points to 85.8. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the index still remains up nearly 2 points from December.
Sophia says the drop in the major household item index might be down to rising inflation expectations, which lifted 0.2 percentage points to 5.2% last week - something the RBA will be keeping an eye on.
Key to watch in New Zealand’s Q4 inflation figures today is the non-tradable side of the basket, says ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman. ANZ Research and the Reserve Bank are forecasting an annual non-tradables rate of 4.7%, down from 4.9%. But an upside surprise could cause a rethink of the expected 50 basis point rate cut in February.
Malaysia’s central bank has a rate decision today, hot on the heels of a surprise cut in Indonesia and surprise hold in South Korea last week. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says Bank Negara Malaysia looks set to hold at 3%.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what New Zealand’s Q4 inflation data could mean for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s February rate decision.
