US jobs data is weaker than expected in November. Australian consumer confidence ends the year lower than it started. And New Zealand’s Government adds another year of deficits to its forecasts.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ahead of the Australian Government’s Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook today ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains what to look out for in the new fiscal and bond programme forecasts.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November - it’s highest since the start of 2017, even as jobs growth of 64,000 beat expectations. Meanwhile, the three month moving average of non-farm payrolls rose only 22,000 in the three months to November. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the data overall are weak, with signs of future weakness.
Australian consumers are ending 2025 less confident than when they started it, according to the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says confidence in future financial conditions, and the economic outlook have trended down.
New Zealand’s Treasury released its Half-Year Economic and Fiscal update yesterday, pushing out the time to reach the Government’s preferred operating surplus measure by a year, to 2030. ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says the Government also shifted out the goalposts of its fiscal strategy.
The new forecasts show net core Crown debt peaking higher than in the Government’s May Budget, at 49.1% of GDP compared to 46% previously. Miles said a change to the Debt Management Office’s liquidity buffer means government bond issuance isn’t rising as much as it otherwise would have.
New Zealand’s housing market looks to be ending the year on a weaker note. Real Estate Institute data for November showed prices down 0.3% in the month and sales volumes below average. ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says the market has very little momentum right now.
Cheers,
Bernard.
This is the last 5 in 5 with ANZ for 2025. We’ll be back on Monday January the 12th, 2026. Until then, we wish you a joyful festive season.
