US consumer confidence lifts, ahead of stronger GDP figures expected today, although weaker jobs data shows signs of a cooling labour market. Australian consumer confidence stays strong ahead of data expected to show headline inflation falling to within the RBA’s target band.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the potential impact today’s inflation numbers could have on the Aussie dollar.
5 things to know:
Overnight, US consumer confidence rose at its fastest pace since early 2021, while job vacancies fell by more than expected, indicating a cooling in the labour market. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says there was still one available job per unemployed person, meaning the labour market was not rolling over.
We’ll get a better read on the state of the US economy this week, with third quarter GDP data tonight, and then non-farm payrolls on Friday. ANZ International Economist Tom Kenny is expecting annualised growth in excess of 3%.
Australian consumer confidence has risen in recent weeks to a 20-month high, the ANZ Roy Morgan survey shows. ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk notes an improvement for renters in particular.
Maddy says a recent improvement in overall consumer confidence has yet to translate into a real increase in attitudes about buying a major household item.
In Australia today, the market expects headline annual inflation of 3% in Q3 - at the top of the RBA’s target Band. ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga is forecasting annual trimmed mean inflation of 3.5%, with quarterly growth of 0.8%.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead at what that Australian Q3 inflation data could mean for the RBA.
