US markets are defensive ahead of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff news, just as weak US manufacturing and jobs data raises slowdown fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, but hawkishly. Australian consumer confidence rises and retail sales keep recovering.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Asian economies may be particularly nervous about the upcoming US tariff announcements, and how they might react.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
US stock markets traded defensively ahead of an imminent report on US trade and then ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariff announcements from the Trump administration. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says weaker manufacturing and jobs data overnight added to slowdown fears.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate steady at 4.10% yesterday, as expected. ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton says the RBA Board maintained a more hawkish stance on domestic activity than priced by the market, while increasing its focus on global uncertainty.
Adam says ANZ Research continues to expect one more rate cut, likely in August. But he says the RBA Board provided itself with optionality in the post-meeting statement regarding future moves.
ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged up 1.1 points to 85.3 in the last week of March, although continued to sit below its 2025 average. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says household confidence in current finances rose.
Australian retail sales grew 0.2% in February, slightly softer than market expectations. That followed a 0.3% rise in January. Sophia says sales should continue to pick up from here, as expected by the RBA.
Cheers,
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with further analysis of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.
