US stocks rise, but wariness remains around tech valuations. ANZ Research updates its RBA call, with rates are expected to stay at 3.6%, and Australian Q3 GDP out today is set to be buoyed by public sector demand.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is at the end of its rate cut cycle, and what’s needed before the next move.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Globally, caution remained around US tech stocks. In Australia today, the focus is on third quarter GDP, with the final partial indicators in yesterday. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell is expecting a quarterly print of 0.6% growth.
Adelaide says that solid growth would come as the RBA appears to be downgrading its expectations of potential GDP - the level of growth that is sustainable without causing changes in the labour market or prices.
ANZ Research has updated its RBA rates call to a hold at 3.6% from here. A key reason is a recent jump in inflation. That fed through to higher inflation expectations in last week’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey, says ANZ Economist Sophia Angala.
There are early signs Australia’s housing market momentum may be easing, says ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk. Data yesterday showed building approvals fell 6.4% in October, although that followed an 11.1% rise in September.
Capital city house prices still rose by what Maddy says was a pretty solid 1% in November, just down on October’s growth. But she says auction clearance rates have been trending lower, and an end to the RBA rate cut cycle indicates the market could ease.
Cheers,
Bernard.
Catch you tomorrow with analysis of Australia’s third quarter GDP out later today.
