Market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month have risen after a weak private jobs report, but remain below 50%. The RBA’s November minutes are more hawkish than expected, and Australian consumer confidence is boosted by sales events.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at China’s ambitions to establish a global gold trading hub to compete with the likes of New York and London.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Fed December rate cut market expectations lifted slightly overnight, but remained below 50%. That came as the ADP weekly payroll series showed the US economy was losing on average 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks to 1 November, says ANZ Economist in London Henry Russell.
That data comes ahead of the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report this Thursday. ANZ Senior Economist Tom Kenny says expectations are the jobless rate stayed at 4.3% in September. He says the number may be stale, but is important, given October’s report won’t be released in full.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday released the meeting minutes of its 4th of November decision to leave the cash rate on hold. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell says they were more hawkish than the post-meeting statement, but not so much as to change the rates outlook.
Adelaide says the Board characterised the labour market as still tight, and appeared alert to upside inflation risks. There was also discussion of whether monetary policy was even restrictive now, she says.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey of Australian Consumer Confidence found a rise of 0.7 points to 84.2 in its overall index last week, after two dips the previous fortnight. ANZ Economist Sophia Angala says the result was boosted by the time-to-buy major item index.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with detail and analysis on how Australian wages tracked over the third quarter.
