US markets stick with September rate cut bets after the Fed Chair delivers ‘something for everyone’ in Senate comments. Australian consumers are gloomier after talk the RBA could hike, and the RBNZ is expected to hold rates later today.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are headed this year, and which one is set to come out on top.
5 things to know:
US equity markets and the yields on US Treasuries both rose slightly as Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a set of nuanced comments on inflation progress. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says a September rate cut is still likely.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hold its official cash rate at 5.5% today. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says while business surveys have been pointing to weaker activity, the RBNZ will be waiting on hard data like next week’s Q2 CPI before any change in stance.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence fell last week to its second lowest reading this year. ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says there was a sharp fall in the time to buy a major household item sub-index, which may have reflected end-of-financial-year sales wrapping up.
Australian business confidence rose six points in June, according to the NAB survey. Maddy says that could be due to businesses hoping for a boost from stage 3 tax cuts. However, reported business conditions continued the trend downwards seen since late 2022.
Taiwan’s exports in June were up 23.5% from a year ago. That was the highest growth since February 2022, led by strength in semiconductors.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with analysis of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision.
