Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data tonight. Oil slumps below US$70/bbl after a demand forecast downgrade. China’s exports jump, but sluggish imports highlight soft demand. And Australia’s Stage 3 tax cuts do little to spur business or consumer confidence.
In in part two of a bonus deep dive interview with Australia’s Group of 8 Universities CEO Vicki Thomson at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit, Vicki explains why Australia’s universities believe there are alternatives to the new international student cap being proposed.
5 things to know:
Global markets are mixed, although oil slid 4% to three-year lows under US$70/bbl. Tonight, ANZ Senior Economist Tom Kenny is expecting the important core US inflation measure to come in at 0.2% from July and 3.2% for the year.
Australian businesses are not feeling the spending love from Stage 3 tax cuts, with NAB’s monthly confidence measure falling to negative 4 last month, which ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says is it’s lowest since November last year.
It’s much the same for Australian consumers. Maddy says the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence measure fell slightly again last week, with drops in how households view the economy in 12 months and five years’ time.
Some good news finally for China’s economy. Exports in August rose 9% from a year ago to their highest level since 2022. However imports rose only 0.5%, further evidence of weak domestic consumption. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says one problem authorities face domestically is that Chinese households are focusing on paying down their mortgages instead of spending.
In New Zealand, manufacturing volumes - a key input for GDP next week - rose 0.6% in the second quarter. ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there was more strength in the data than leading indicators suggested.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a what those US inflation numbers might mean for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut.
