The US dollar falls again ahead of a likely Fed pause, with the Aussie up to near 70 USc, and the Kiwi over 60 USc. China’s firms are profitable for the first time in four years. The Reserve Bank of Australia will focus today on December quarter CPI data.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh previews the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision due on Friday.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
The US Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee will decide tomorrow on whether to keep cutting the world’s most important interest rate, the Fed Funds Rate. ANZ Economist in London Henry Russell expects a pause, before a resumption of cuts in March.
Data out overnight showed consumer confidence in the United States fell sharply in January to its lowest level in 11 years, as measured by the Conference Board. Henry says the survey measure of the jobs market was also very weak.
Henry says the rises in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars overnight to new multi-month highs is as much about the US dollar’s weakness as anything else.
Australia reports December quarter inflation data later today. ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell is forecasting trimmed mean inflation of 0.8% for the quarter and 3.2% for the year, in line with the RBA’s forecast.
China’s industrial profits rose 5.3% in December and that took profits for the calendar 2025 to a rise of 0.6%, which was the first rise in four years, says ANZ Economist for Greater China Vicky Xiao Zhou.
Cheers,
Bernard.
Catch you tomorrow with the results of that inflation data in Australia and how the RBA might view it.
