The bond market selloff resumed in earnest overnight after better than expected US retail sales figures aggravated fear the Fed will have to keep interest rates high for even longer.
In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview with ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung, he looks at how China might fix the debt problems at its Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs).
5 things to know
US retail sales rose 0.7% in September, which was more than double market expectations. The US 10-year yield rose 14 basis points at 4.84%, lifting the US$. The A$ is down at 63.64 USc at 5am AEST. The NZ$ is at 58.96c.
ANZ has tweaked its view on when the Fed will start cutting from Q2 of 2024 to Q3 of 2024, says ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny.
ANZ has pushed out its call on when the RBNZ will hike one more time from November 29 to February 28 after lower-than-forecast inflation data, says ANZ Economist Henry Russell.
ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh now sees Vietnam holding rates, rather cutting them, after an acceleration in GDP growth in Q3.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to ease policy next year, says ANZ Senior Strategist Irene Cheung, having tightened earlier than others.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Look out tomorrow morning for the latest from China’s economy. Fresh data is due later today.
