The US dollar continues to weaken as rate cut hopes solidify. RBA minutes show its dual mandate helped avoid a rate hike. New Zealand house prices fell ahead of the RBNZ’s rate cut. Indonesia could cut rates today, while Thailand looks set to hold.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton presents ANZ Research’s revised Australian economic forecasts and explains why the RBA can hold until February.
5 things to know:
The US dollar weakened further overnight as bets on US Fed rate cuts solidified. Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes showed an interesting emergence of the RBA’s dual mandate, says ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton.
Adam says ANZ Research still thinks the RBA will start easing rates from February.
New Zealand house prices fell 0.5% in July from June. ANZ Economist Henry Russell sees some downside risk to ANZ Research’s forecast for prices to fall 1% in 2024, but he notes the July fall was before the RBNZ started cutting rates.
China’s lenders held their benchmark lending rates in August. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says policymakers will now be watching for further weakness in the data ahead of any further rate cuts.
Thailand has a policy rate decision today. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan expects a hold at 2.5%. But she says Bank Indonesia’s review of whether to cut from 6.25% will be a much closer call, particularly after a Philippines cut last week.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with more from Adam Boyton on whether Australia’s economy is heading for a soft landing.
