US Treasury yields jump on growing expectations Donald Trump will win the US Presidency and run looser fiscal policy. European stocks rise after a smaller-than-expected win by France’s right wing. The Yen hits a fresh 38-year low.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains how Australia’s inflation cycle compares to the rest of the world, and why services inflation is so sticky.
5 things to know:
US Treasury yields jumped 6-14 bps overnight on expectations Donald Trump will win November’s election. European stocks firmed on signs France’s right wing parties would win Parliamentary elections with a smaller-than-expected vote. The Yen hit a 38-year low after a mixed Tankan business survey, although ANZ FX Analyst Mahjabeen Zaman says the Bank of Japan should be encouraged by rising inflation expectations.
The ANZ Indeed monthly job advertisement series for June showed an intensifying fall. ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk sees the beginning of the end of ‘job hoarding’, which has held employment up until now.
The minutes for the RBA’s June board meeting are out today. ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers says the focus will be on whether there’s any additional hawkish commentary on whether a rate hike was discussed.
Indonesia’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.5% in June from 2.8% in May, putting it well inside Bank Indonesia’s 1.5% to 3.5% target band. ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan says the Fed’s rate moves are crucial for Indonesia’s rates outlook.
Krystal expects weak inflation data for June out later today in South Korea. She forecasts annual CPI inflation of 2.5%, down from 2.7% in May, and after month-on-month deflation of 0.2%.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with the detail from today’s RBA’s June board minutes.
