Treasury yields are jumping as strong US manufacturing data increases doubt about a rate cut by the Fed in June. That broke gold’s surge to a fresh record high and lifted the US dollar. China’s manufacturing activity is also on the rise.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, says this quarter’s data is where the rubber will meet the road for whether central banks can cut rates this year.
5 things to know:
US Treasury yields surged 10-14 basis points after stronger than expected US factory output data. That drove the US dollar up and the gold price down from a record high overnight of US$2,268.75/oz. ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers says the Fed wants more evidence inflation is softening.
ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman says Taylor Swift concerts did lift Australian clothing and department store sales, while the underlying non-Swift data was weaker.
Australian job vacancies fell for the seventh month in a row in February and are now down 23.5% from their May 2022 peak.
New Zealand consumer confidence fell sharply in March after several months of improvement. ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says responses in every week of the month fell alongside headlines that the economy was in recession.
ANZ NZ’s Business Outlook survey also showed confidence fell hard after the recession headlines. Sharon says cracks are emerging in the services sector, which will be of interest to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a review of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting minutes.
