Oil is up another 3% on fears of escalating Middle East conflict. Friday’s bumper US jobs report has seen bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in November evaporate. And China’s stock market braces for a renewed surge after the Golden Week holidays.
In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell sees signs the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s August rate cut may have already spurred some housing market activity.
5 things to know:
The oil price rose another 3% on Middle East fears, with Brent touching $80 overnight. Meanwhile the yield on the US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% for the first time in two months. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says bets for a 50 bps cut in November have evaporated after Friday’s bumper jobs data.
China’s recent stimulus means there’s now a chance it could achieve its 5% GDP growth forecast, says ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou. China’s stock market is expected to surge again today following the Golden Week holidays.
The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is expected to be a hold, albeit with a less hawkish tone, says ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim.
Vietnam reported September quarter growth of 7.4% from a year ago, well above consensus forecasts for 6.1%. ANZ Economist Kausani Basak says Vietnam’s position as one of the beneficiaries of China’s friendshoring of tech exports was a big factor.
Thailand’s Finance Ministry reportedly wants to raise the country’s inflation target to increase pressure on the Bank of Thailand to cut rates. Annual inflation edged up slightly to 0.6% in September - below the current 1-3% target. It has been above 1% only once since April 2023. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says a rate cut might be on its way though.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead to Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision.
