5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
Tuesday: RBA set for hawkish hold
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Tuesday: RBA set for hawkish hold

RBA to hold cash rate & leave QT talk for later; Australian profits & inventories surprisingly weak before Q2 GDP data; RBI cashed up to defend rupee; Richard Yetsenga examines India's surging GDP

The RBA is set to hold the cash rate for a third consecutive month later today, but with a hawkish twist. The US$ remains strong against the yen and renminbi. The RBI is keeping a floor under the rupee.

In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga look’s at India’s burgeoning economic growth as it steps up to host G20 leaders this weekend.

5 things to know

  1. ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton expects the RBA to hold the cash rate at 4.1% early this afternoon Australian time, but continues to warn it may have to hike again if inflation stays sticky and high.

  2. Adam also thinks the RBA will hold off any talk about an acceleration of its quantitative tightening.

  3. The US$ remains strong this morning against Asian currencies, as interest rate differentials widen more in the global reserve currency’s favour, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says.

  4. Australian profits and inventories were surprisingly weak in Q2. Adam will tweak his final Q2 GDP forecasts with net exports data today ahead of Wednesday’s full Q2 GDP result.

  5. Mahjabeen says the RBI now has a big enough buffer of foreign reserves to support the rupee, dampening imported inflation for factory equipment importers.

Cheers

Bernard

PS: Look out for an updated Australian GDP forecast tomorrow.

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5 in 5 with ANZ
5 in 5 with ANZ
A daily podcast hosted by Bernard Hickey that gives you the five things you need to know about the global economy and markets in under five minutes. Plus a deep dive into emerging trends and issues featuring ANZ's global team of experts.