US Treasury yields rose after stronger retail sales data showed consumers are still spending. Oil fell as Middle East conflict fears eased. Dollar/Yen slid through 154 for the first time since 1990. Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down against a stronger USD.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga highlights the quiet achievements of Japan as it emerges from a period of shrinkanomics and the lessons it can teach others with declining populations.
5 things to know:
US Treasury yields spiked 10-15 basis points overnight after US retail sales rose 0.7% in March, versus the 0.4% expected. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says strong jobs growth has meant workers have just kept spending.
Traders initially pushed out expectations for when the US Federal Reserve will start cutting rates, but they settled back in later trade. The first fully priced cut remains in November, but Brian is not convinced July is off the table.
Brent oil traded down almost a dollar at US$89.60 a barrel overnight as markets breathed a sigh of relief – for now – that the conflict in the Middle East has not widened. That loss had reversed out slightly by 4am Sydney/Melbourne time.
The US dollar continues to strengthen vs the yen, rising through 154 yen overnight, helped by hopes for a global factory output recovery after strong data out of Japan, says ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman.
There’s been a massive shakeup in the markets for nickel, aluminium and copper with news over the weekend that the United States and Britain have banned the ownership and trading of these metals coming from Russia, says ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead to New Zealand CPI data.
