Stronger than expected inflation in the UK pushes out BoE rate cut bets, as PM Rishi Sunak calls a snap election. New Zealand’s Reserve Bank turns hawkish and delays its rate cut forecast. Indonesia holds rates. Singapore’s core inflation is forecast to rise.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks ahead to a key meeting of global oil producers, and what it could mean for supply and the oil price.
5 things to know:
Stronger-than-expected inflation in the UK has seen traders push out bets on when the Bank of England will start cutting rates. Annual headline CPI dropped from 3.2 to 2.3% in April, led by falls in goods and energy prices. ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani says this was a smaller drop than expected.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates hold at 5.5% yesterday, as expected, but pushed out its first forecast rate cut by three months to August 2025. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the hawkish turn was due to non-tradable inflation falling slower than the RBNZ hoped.
South Korea’s central bank is expected to hold rates at 3.5% today. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia held at 6.25% yesterday. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says the central bank indicated its rate hike in April was enough to support the Rupiah.
Global PMI surveys released today will feed into bets on where interest rates are headed. ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan says the surveys can be good leading indicators for major economic data.
Singapore releases April CPI and final Q1 GDP data today. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says core CP looks set to rise to 3.2%.
Cheers
Bernard
PS: Catch you tomorrow with what those global PMIs could mean for interest rates.
